ASR’s Market Scenario Analyser (MSA)
Build up a detailed market scenario based on a broad range of available factors and scenarios – including ASR Macro indicators;
Adjust the scenario analysis and investment ideas to best fit your favoured time horizon – from 20 days to 6 months;
Focus on investment ideas in specific universes ... including user created ones – Equities, Sectors, Stocks, Futures ... and Portfolios.
Note: The investments highlighted in the MSA are not recommendations to buy or sell a specific asset, but are based on analysis of what historically happened when a scenario occurred.
We have developed the ASR Market Scenario Analyser (MSA) to provide clients with a platform on which to analyse what history suggests might be the investment implications of market scenarios, built from a wide database of available potential factors. Click here for the user guide
In this way, clients can look at the investment implications of simple or complex scenarios, or perhaps their strongest convictions about the future, on a variety of universes, including their own portfolios.
All of this is designed with the users in mind – simple controls allow clients to quickly set their analysis preferences and drill down to investment ideas, which are also tailored to their own investment horizon and universe. Simply build a scenario and see what history suggests it might mean for investment performance going forward.
What do we mean by scenarios?
Using a drop down menu,users build a scenario from a wide range of available inputs. For instance, these might be based on the expectation that US Equities, Crude and Gold will be up in the next 6 months, but that the US dollar will be down – tell me what historically has been the best global sector to invest in based on that scenario? Or alternatively, it might be that US Bonds and Emerging Markets are down over the past 3 months, while the Yen is up – tell me what history suggests could be expected to do well from my portfolio over the coming 3 months?
It might even be based on one of ASR’s proprietary datasets, e.g. what has happened from a UK stock perspective when Global Activity rises over the next 3 months?
What do we mean by investment ideas?
The MSA should not be viewed as providing recommendations to buy or sell a specific asset. It does, however, provide details of what historically were successful investments when a scenario has arisen.
What do we mean by tailor your analysis?
Clients can build their inputs from a wide range of available market factors, cutting across Equities, Bonds, FX and Commodities. Some of the key macro factors that we at ASR monitor are also included as available factors, such as Industrial commodities versus Foodstuffs. We have also included some of ASR’s proprietary Activity and Inflation datasets, along with Risk Appetite measures (background on these proprietary ASR series can be found in the MSA user guide here).
These factors are analysed on the basis of one of three MSA ‘Modes’. These ‘Modes’ provide the basis for answering the question – based on long-term history, what were statistically the strongest performing assets when .... ?
PREDICTIVE: when a combination of Predicted Factors occur, e.g. Gold is Rising and S&P 500 is Falling over the Next 3M.
HISTORIC: when a combination of Historic Factors have occurred, e.g. Bonds have Fallen & USD has Risen in the Past 3M.
Current STATE: when Factor Level OR % Change in a Factor has been similar to current levels.
The flexibility of the platform allows clients to base their analysis on a timeframe of their choosing.
Having built a scenario, users are directed to potential investment ideas. They then pick their preferred investment timeframe and universe. Indeed, one of the universes might be the client’s own portfolio or watch list, as MSA allows clients to create their own universes.
In Summary, the MSA provides clients with a flexible and user-friendly platform on which to analyse the potential investment implications of macro and market scenarios. In terms of the investment implications, this is based on what has happened historically when these scenarios unfolded. In terms of investment universes, the MSA covers Global Equity Markets, Sectors and Stocks, along with Multi-Asset Futures and a range of FX crosses.
The MSA is not intended, and should not be viewed, as providing recommendations to buy or sell a specific asset. While we believe the data provided from external sources to be reliable, ASR is unable to guarantee its accuracy.