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Economics Team

Dominic White
Head of Economics
Michael Hessel
Political Economist
Raphael Olszyna-Marzys
Economist
Ben Blanchard
Economist

Economics Research

Economics Products: Absolute Strategy Weekly, Economics Quarterly, Newsflow Monitor.

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Investment Strategy Weekly Update - 27th April 2017
27 Apr 2017
: Ian Harnett, Michael Hessel, Dominic White, Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, Ben Blanchard, Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain
Watch: Investment Strategy Weekly Update - 27th April 2017
Investment Strategy Weekly Update - 20th April 2017
20 Apr 2017
: Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, Michael Hessel, Ben Blanchard, Dominic White, Philip Isherwood, Charles Cara, Zahra Ward-Murphy, Chris Turner, David McBain, Stefano Di Domizio
Watch: Investment Strategy Weekly Update - 20th April 2017
DESKNOTE : UK snap election makes a hard Brexit less likely
19 Apr 2017
: Richard Mylles

UK snap election expected on 8th June

The key points:-
•     The governing Conservatives are likely to increase their majority at the expense of Labour (one estimate by psephologist Michael Thrasher suggested that current polls replicated at a general election would give the Conservatives a 140-seat majority)
•     The Liberal Democrats could enjoy a revival in areas which voted Remain in last year’s Brexit referendum
•     This could have the effect of creating an even more eurosceptic Conservative parliamentary party, as Tory MPs in Remain-majority constituencies lose their seats to the Lib Dems and a large new intake of pro-Leave MPs enter Parliament courtesy of Labour collapse in the majority-Leave North of England
•     However, there is also a significant likelihood that, if Theresa May is able to enlarge her majority (currently just 17 seats), she will strengthen her personal authority, reduce the leverage of the hardcore eurosceptics in her party (about 60 MPs) and potentially increase the chances of either a softer Brexit and/or a lengthy transitional period in which the UK’s current membership terms are effectively extended beyond March 2019
•     The election will also reset the electoral clock, easing the pressure to extricate the UK from the EU by June 2020 (the previous date of the next scheduled election), extending that notional deadline to June 2022, and potentially providing much-needed negotiating time to agree the post-Brexit relationship

Investment Strategy Weekly Update - 13th April 2017
13 Apr 2017
: Dominic White, Michael Hessel, Raphael Olszyna-Marzys, Ben Blanchard, Charles Cara, Philip Isherwood, Zahra Ward-Murphy, Chris Turner, Stefano Di Domizio, David McBain
Watch: Investment Strategy Weekly Update - 13th April 2017
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