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Equity Strategy: Global Equities Unlikely to Sustain Gains in 2017
Economics: The real challenge for France lies ahead
Multi-Asset: Risk appetite challenges pro-cyclical narrative
UK snap election expected on 8th June
The key points:-
• The governing Conservatives are likely to increase their majority at the expense of Labour (one estimate by psephologist Michael Thrasher suggested that current polls replicated at a general election would give the Conservatives a 140-seat majority)
• The Liberal Democrats could enjoy a revival in areas which voted Remain in last year’s Brexit referendum
• This could have the effect of creating an even more eurosceptic Conservative parliamentary party, as Tory MPs in Remain-majority constituencies lose their seats to the Lib Dems and a large new intake of pro-Leave MPs enter Parliament courtesy of Labour collapse in the majority-Leave North of England
• However, there is also a significant likelihood that, if Theresa May is able to enlarge her majority (currently just 17 seats), she will strengthen her personal authority, reduce the leverage of the hardcore eurosceptics in her party (about 60 MPs) and potentially increase the chances of either a softer Brexit and/or a lengthy transitional period in which the UK’s current membership terms are effectively extended beyond March 2019
• The election will also reset the electoral clock, easing the pressure to extricate the UK from the EU by June 2020 (the previous date of the next scheduled election), extending that notional deadline to June 2022, and potentially providing much-needed negotiating time to agree the post-Brexit relationship
Economics: US Corporate Tax Reform Guidelines
Equity Strategy: Moving to Positive on the US Dividend Dynamos
Multi-Asset: What is lumber price strength telling us?
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