Leading Indicators provide a 6-12 month leading view on the business cycle in Europe, the US, and Asia.

Compared with the OECD leading indicators, our metrics provide a longer lead on the cycle as well as excluding all market-based indicators.

Surprise Indicators measure the extent to which economic data have deviated from the expectations of professional forecasters on a daily basis over the previous quarter, providing a timely and high frequency indicator of economic news.

A real-time indication of analysts’ economic expectations. The indicators measure a broader definition of ‘economic activity’ but work well as a realtime daily series of Consensus GDP forecasts.

Business Cycle Indicators (BCIs) classify the current stage of the business cycle in real time (i.e., recovery, mid cycle, late cycle and recession).

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They capture a cycle lasting between three and ten years from peak to trough and are based on five underlying components: the investment to GDP ratio, unemployment rate, corporate margins, consumer willingness to buy durable goods, and growth in credit to the private sector.

ASR’s Financial Cycle Indicators capture movements in the long-run financial cycle. They comprise three financial variables: credit to the private non-financial sector, the ratio of credit to GDP (leverage), and residential property prices.

Comprising volume data for freight activity at the busiest airports and container ports in Asia, Europe and the US, ASR’s Logistics Indicators are designed to provide a timely read on global trade growth.

Our Air Freight Indicators, which are more sensitive to changes in demand, also provide a crosscheck on a number of cyclical indicators such as the performance of Cyclical vs Defensive Equities, Commodity prices and EPS growth.

Tracking the critical input in global manufactured goods. ASR semiconductors pack includes a proprietary memory chip price index based on the leading chips available and tracks the monthly revenues of the topthree Taiwanese chip foundries. In addition, the pack covers global semiconductor prices, sales, exports, production, and equities in detail.

A broad measure of sovereign risk premiums across 79 Emerging Markets. Which complements our narrower EM Vulnerability index.

ASR’s proprietary US & EZ Recession Risk Dashboards indicate the likelihood of a recession within the next 2 years.